Research memo · M&A
Why Tapestry Should Acquire The RealReal, With an Earnout
By Karya · built from Tapestry and The RealReal filings and resale deal comparables
Consumer and retail · brand heat before it reaches the numbers
Heat is moving from logos to performance. US running shoe sales are up — and Prada is back at No. — on Lyst, while LVMH is — this year and total US footwear sales are only —, all from higher prices.
A one-page snapshot of the footwear market: the stocks, the reports coming up, the numbers, the news and what is gaining traction on social.
US sales are growing only through price; running is the one segment selling more pairs.
The dashboard can't play embedded videos, so each trend links to its TikTok feed or a write-up.
Research memo · M&A
By Karya · built from Tapestry and The RealReal filings and resale deal comparables
Earnings preview · On Holding (NYSE: ONON)
My call ahead of On's third-quarter results in mid-November, from my own driver-based model built on On's filings. All On figures are in Swiss francs; values per share are in US dollars.
A cash-flow valuation is harsher, at — a share in my base case, because it charges stock-based pay and rent as real costs. My target leans on the market paying for growth beyond 2029.
Reported growth versus growth at constant currency. The gap is the currency drag, and I expect it to nearly close in Q3.
Direct-to-consumer keeps compounding while wholesale slows as On manages retailer orders. I read it as a deliberate reset.
| Driver | My view | Why |
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The full model is available on request.
Business, retail and consumer stories only, from WWD, Business of Fashion, FashionUnited, Retail Dive and others. Vogue Business and The New York Times are paywalled, so their stories aren't in this snapshot.
Estimated dates aren't confirmed by the company yet; past reports are greyed out and today is highlighted.
| Date | Company | Ticker | Report | Status | What to watch |
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The banner at the top shows these prices on every tab. Each row has its quote date, and the ticker links to its source.
| Group | Company | Ticker | Price | Day | Year to date | Market cap | Quote date |
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Lyst ranks brands by shopper demand on its platform plus social, search and editorial signals, excluding demand driven only by discounts. Movement is places gained or lost since Q2.
Headline figures across footwear, apparel, luxury, beauty and the US consumer, from Circana, Statista, Bain & Altagamma and ThredUp. Footwear goes deepest. Statista's full market models sit behind a paid licence, so only its free figures are here.
US sales are growing only through price, and running is the one segment selling more pairs.
Expected change in holiday spending versus 2025, by forecaster. A bar shows a range; a dot shows a single estimate.
Prices are delayed quotes; check each row's date before relying on it.
Social pulse
What fashion audiences are posting and searching. TikTok hashtag counts come from TikTok's Creative Center and cover the last 30 days. X (Twitter) needs a social-listening tool to measure, so it isn't tracked here yet.
TikTok
Instagram
Search and culture